2013 Oscar Predictions

This is the first year that I am actually posting my picks on who is going to win the Academy Awards more than 2 hours before the show.
It is also the first year that I have seen all of the Best Picture nominees before the Oscar ceremony which makes things a lot simpler (sort of) to make my picks. When making my picks on who will be taking home statuettes it is part research/stats and part gut feeling. I believe my gut has been getting a bit better with each passing Oscar season, so hopefully I will make a lot of right choices. I will be happy with getting anywhere from 85 - 100% correct which I think is doable. So without further delay here are my picks starting with:
Best Original Screenplay:
Nominees:
1)Amour
2)Django Unchained
3) Flight
4)Moonrise Kingdom
5)Zero Dark Thirty

Will, Should Win and Personal Favorite: Django Unchained

Explanation: The only other film I believe has a chance of taking this award from Quentin Tarantino is Michael Hanake for Amour.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Nominees:
1)Argo
2)Beasts of the Southern Wild
3)Life of Pi
4)Lincoln
5)Silver Linings Playbook

Will Win: Argo
Should win: Lincoln
Personal Favorite: Beasts of the Southern Wild

Explanation: This is a bit more difficult to predict. Argo has been the most rewarded film this entire awards season and this the screenplay was also rewarded at the WGA awards as well. Tony Kushner's work on Lincoln's screenplay is also well regarded and Silver Linings Playbook has it's fans as well but I think Argo has all the momentum going into Oscar Sunday.

Best Visual Effects: Nominees:
1)The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
2)Life of Pi
3)The Avengers
4)Prometheus
5)Snow White and the Huntsman

Will Win and Should Win: Life of Pi
Personal Favorite: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Explanation: Life of Pi is just brilliant when it comes to its visual effects and everyone knows it. The only film that I think can disappoint is The Hobbit. The series constantly has the most stunning visual effects and The Hobbit is no exception.

Best Sound Mixing:
Nominees:
1)Argo
2)Les Miserables
3) Life of Pi
4)Lincoln
5)Skyfall

Will, Should Win and Personal Favorite: Les Miserables

Explanation: Musicals usually win this award and the Academy will reward  the extra challenge of live singing.

Best Sound Editing:
Nominees:
1)Argo
2)Django Unchained
3)Life of Pi
4)Skyfall
5)Zero Dark Thirty

Will and Should Win: Skyfall
Personal Favorite: Django Unchained

Explanation: The Academy will want to reward the excellent work Skyfall did this year. Argo or Life of Pi could disappoint.

Best Short Film (Live Action)
Nominees:
1)Asad
2)Buzkashi Boys
3)Curfew
4)Death of a Shadow
5)Henry

Will Win: Curfew

Explanation: This is a shot in the dark. Haven't seen or heard much about these films.

Best Short Film (Animated)
Nominees:
1)Adam and Dog
2)Fresh Guacamole
3)Head over Heels
4)Maggie Simpson in "The Longest Daycare"
5) Paperman

Will Win: Paperman

Explanation: Have only seen Paperman since it is the most accessible. It is also a brilliant piece of work and the Academy knows it. Plus it is Disney. I have also read love for Adam and Dog so perhaps that may pull of an upset? Probably not

Best Production Design:
Nominees:
1)Anna Karenina
2)The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
3)Les Miserables
4)Life of Pi
5)Lincoln

Will Win and Should Win: Lincoln
Personal Favorite: The Hobbit

Explanation: Honestly four of the five nominees (The Hobbit excluded) have a good chance of winning. I think Lincoln is extremely well done and with 12 Academy Award nominations I believe they see it too.

Best Music (Original Song):
Nominees:
1) "Before My Time" from "Chasing Ice"
2)"Everybody Needs a Best Friend" from "Ted"
3)"Pi's Lullaby" from "Life of Pi"
4)"Skyfall" from "Skyfall"
5) "Suddenly" from "Les Miserables"

Will/Should Win and Personal Favorite: Skyfall

Explanation: When Adele is nominated she is going to win. (see the Grammys)
Best Music (Original Score):
Nominees:
1)Anna Karenina
2)Argo
3)Life of Pi
4)Lincoln
5)Skyfall

Will Win: Life of Pi
Should Win and Personal Favorite: Skyfall

Explanation: Life of Pi is well liked and the score is good. I think Lincoln and Skyfall are the only ones that can pull off the upset.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Nominees:
1)Hitchcock
2)The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
3)Les Miserables

Will Win: Les Miserables
Should WIn and Personal Favorite: The Hobbit

Explanation: Les Miserables is the only Best Picture nominee in the group which gives it a bit more pedigree and a better edge.

Best Foreign Language Film:
Nominees:
1)Amour - Austria
2)Kon-Tiki - Norway
3)No - Chile
4)A Royal Affair - Denmark
5)War Witch - Canada

Will Win and Should Win: Amour

Explanation: The only Best Picture nominee in the category should easily take this award

Best Film Editing:
Nominees:
1)Argo
2)Life of Pi
3)Lincoln
4)Silver Linings Playbook
5)Zero Dark Thirty

Will Win and Should Win: Argo

Explanation: Just another award that Argo will collect tonight.

Best Documentary Short Subject: Nominees:
1)Inocente
2)Kings Point
3)Mondays at Racine
4)Open Heart
5)Redemption

Will Win: Open Heart

Explanation: Another shot in the dark...

Best Documentary Feature:
Nominees:
1)5 Broken Cameras
2)The Gatekeepers
3)How to Survive a Plague
4)The Invisible War
5)Searching for Sugar Man

Will Win: Searching for Sugar Man

Explanation: Has dominated the awards season so far shouldn't bet against it now.

Costume Design:
Nominees:
1)Anna Karenina
2)Les Miserables
3)Lincoln
4)Mirror Mirror
5)Snow White and the Huntsman

Will Win: Anna Karenina

Explanation: Don't bet against an Elizabethan-esque film

Best Cinematography:
Nominees:
1)Anna Karenina
2)Django Unchained
3)Life of Pi
4)Lincoln
5)Skyfall

Will Win and Should Win: Life of Pi
Personal Favorite: Skyfall

Explanation: just another sure bet for Life of Pi. Spoilers...Skyfall? Lincoln? won't happen, though

Best Animated Feature Film:
Nominees:
1)Brave
2)Frankenweenie
3) Paranorman
4)The Pirates! Band of Misfits
5) Wreck-It Ralph

Will Win: Brave
Should Win and Personal Favorite: Frankenweenie

Explanation: This is a battle between Brave and Wreck-It Ralph. It could either way. Crossing my fingers for a Frankenweenie upset, though.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role:
Nominees:
1)Amy Adams - Amy Adams
2)Sally Field - Lincoln
3)Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
4)Helen Hunt - The Sessions
5)Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook

Will Win, Should Win, and Personal Favorite: Anne Hathaway

Explanation: One of my favorite actresses giving one of the best performances of the year. Anne Hathaway has dominated the season so far she isn't going to stop now. Only person who could possibly upset? Sally Field...after all she is 2 for 2 at the Academy Awards

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
Nominees:
1)Alan Arkin - Argo
2)Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook
3)Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
4)Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
5)Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained

Will Win: Robert De Niro
Should Win: Tommy Lee Jones

Explanation: I am a fan of all of these performances and I still believe that this category can go to any one of these actors. Robert De Niro I believe has the slight edge.

Best Actress in a Leading Role:
Nominees:
1)Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
2)Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
3)Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
4)Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild
5)Naomi Watts - The Impossible

Will Win and Should Win: Emmanuelle Riva
Personal Favorite: Naomi Watts

Explanation: Jennifer Lawrence has dominated the awards season so far. In the beginning of the season I would have said it was between Lawrence and Chastain, however, Chastain went down with the Zero Dark Thirty ship which is disappointing. Now Riva is giving Lawrence a run for her money and I think she has actually overtaken Lawrence in the race. We shall see tomorrow.

Best Actor in a Leading Role:
Nominees:
1)Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
2)Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
3)Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
4)Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
5) Denzel Washington - Flight

Will Win, Should Win, and Person Favorite: Daniel Day-Lewis

Explanation: No Contest

Best Director:
Nominees:
1)Michael Haneke - Amour
2)Benh Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild
3)Ang Lee - Life of Pi
4)Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
5)David O. Russell - Silver Linings Paybook

Will Win: Ang Lee
Should Win: Steven Spielberg

Personal Favorite: Benh Zeitlin
Explanation: Ang Lee did absolutely stunning work. Steven Spielberg made a masterpiece which is why he could spoil.

Best Picture:
Nominees:
1) Amour
2)Argo
3)Beasts of the Southern Wild
4)Django Unchained
5)Les Miserables
6)Life of Pi
7)Lincoln
8)Silver Linings Playbook
9)Zero Dark Thirty

Will Win: Argo
Should Win: Lincoln
Personal Favorite: Django Unchained

Explanation: Argo has dominated the season so far. Winning awards that many thought it had no chance at winning. There is no stopping this movie.